01/21/2026

Methane emissions from Europe’s landfills: Scenarios and Data Challenges

Prognos | ifeu gGmbH

Methane emissions from landfills represent a significant and often underestimated climate challenge. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, with a higher Global Warming Potential. Given methane’s short atmospheric lifetime and powerful near-term warming effect, rapid mitigation can deliver substantial climate benefits.

Within the European Union, around 18 per cent of methane emissions in 2021 are reported to originate from solid waste disposal. Satellite-based studies suggest actual emissions may be significantly higher than reported.

The European Union (EU) has established a comprehensive policy framework to reduce landfilling, promote recycling, and strengthen the circular economy, and has set climate targets of a 55 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. Within this context, the waste sector is increasingly in focus. This is reflected in ongoing discussions on a ban on landfilling unpretreated mixed municipal waste and revisions to the Landfill Directive.

Kanadevia Inova commissioned Prognos and ifeu to analyse the timeframe and magnitude of methane emissions from landfilling and highlight data gaps to support evidence-based policymaking and accelerate methane-reduction efforts.

Conclusion of the study: Reducing methane emissions can slow the rate of near-term warming and “buy time”.

For a detailed project description and study (ifeu.de)

Project description Prognos website

Download study “Methane Emissions from Europe’s landfills | Prognos”