Methane emissions from Europe’s landfills

Scenarios and Data Challenges

Autor*innen: Bärbel Birnstengel, Richard Simson, Regine Vogt

Methane emissions from landfills represent a significant and often underestimated climate challenge. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and has a higher Global Warming Potential: Its greenhouse effect is 27 times that of CO₂ over 100 years and 79.7 times over 20 years.

The European Union (EU) has established a comprehensive policy framework to reduce landfilling, promote recycling, and strengthen the circular economy.

The present study provides a robust, scenario-based quantitative assessment of future methane emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) deposited in landfills across the EU-27+UK between 2022 and 2050. The study also evaluates data quality, methodological consistency, and uncertainties using country-specific analyses, including detailed reviews of National Inventory Documents (NIDs) submitted to the UNFCCC11. The objective is to improve the understanding of methane emissions from landfilling, highlight data gaps, and support evidence-based policymaking to accelerate methane-reduction efforts.