Analysis of the environmental impacts of vehicles with different drivetrain and fuel options in Germany during the transition towards a greenhouse gas neutral mobility

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In order to achieve Germany's medium- and long-term climate protection targets in the transport sector in addition to traffic avoidance and modal shift, the use of alternative powertrains and alternative fuels is necessary. Based on the average vehicles, powertrains and fuels available today, a plausible development is examined that includes both vehicle characteristics and the increasing share of synthetic (electricity-based) fuels. The end point is a largely decarbonized world in 2050. 

Average passenger cars, light commercial vehicles and trucks for the model years 2020, 2030 and 2050 are examined. The environmental impact per kilometre driven is calculated using a comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) that includes vehicle production, use, maintenance and disposal, as well as the provision of synthetic, biogenic and fossil fuels and electricity. Overall, for all vehicle types and model years, the battery electric vehicle concepts are the superior solution in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and cumulative energy consumption. 

In the medium term, however, their use of the German electricity mix leads to significant negative effects in terms of other relevant environmental impacts. In a decarbonized world, all technologies are at a low level in terms of environmental impact, but most environmental impacts do not decrease as much as global warming potential. While GHG emissions per vehicle kilometre for passenger cars are reduced by an average of 96% compared to 2020, acidification and particulate matter, for example, are reduced by only 40-60%. 

Through sensitivity analyses, the study also identifies key levers for short- and long-term improvements. These relate mainly to the raw materials used in vehicle production and electricity generation, including synthetic fuels.