DIFENs - Forest development as a result of changes in timber demand, climate change, natural disturbances and policy requirements

An analysis of the response options for the forestry and timber industry

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Numerous studies have already analysed the development of forest stands, the volume of wood and carbon storage under various management scenarios - mostly based on federal forest inventories. Until now, however, there has been a lack of an integrated approach that looks at wood demand, climate change impacts and forest management together.

The DIFENs joint project aimed to close this research gap by developing detailed scenarios that link the end product sectors, semi-finished goods and raw materials: The partners used a total of four models for this purpose:

• The TRAW model from INFRO e.K. determines the future demand for wood. Assumptions regarding population development and technical innovations were taken into account. In addition, assessments by experts from the forestry and timber industry were included, which were obtained as part of a Delphi survey.

• The calculated wood demand was incorporated into the FABio-Forest forest development model of the Öko-Institut e.V., which can react to climatic changes by linking it with the 4C forest growth model of PIK e.V..

• Finally, ifeu used the HoLCA model to derive greenhouse gas emissions and life cycle assessments along the value chain from the results of wood utilisation. 

The project focussed on answering the following key questions:

• How much wood will we need in Germany in the future?
• How are forests in Germany developing in the wake of climate change?
• Can the forests fulfil future requirements under the changed conditions?
• What consequences does this have in particular for the accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts?