Economic potential for efficient heating and cooling supply

Europaflagge im Wind

The European Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) provides for a comprehensive assessment of the potential for the use of high-efficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling in paragraph 1 of Article 14 on the promotion of efficiency in heating and cooling. Paragraph 3 further requires Member States to carry out a cost-benefit analysis for their entire territory, taking into account climatic


The aim of the research project is therefore to produce maps of the entire territory with details of the heating and cooling demand areas identified, to analyze the economic potential for efficient heating and cooling supply and to develop potential new strategies and strategic measures.

Based on the baseline scenario of the National Energy and Climate Protection Plan (NECP), the consortium evaluates the use of different heating and cooling supply technologies in terms of economic, socio-economic and environmental factors. Furthermore, they identify different supply options based on renewable energies or efficient heating and cooling supply technologies. For this purpose, the researchers disaggregate the national scenario results into small areas with the help of ifeu's Heat Atlas 2.0 (WaD). The resulting small-scale maps show the heat consumption for the different sectors (households, services and industry) and applications (space heating and hot water, process heating and cooling, air-conditioning) in the years 2020, 2030 and 2050. They are available in an online tool.

Determination of potentials

For this analysis of the economic potentials for an efficient heating and cooling supply, the data are subsequently determined at the municipal level and supplemented by the results of potential analyses for various renewable energy sources. The data form the basis for identifying potential district heating areas and determining their economic supply mix. A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis complements the work.

The quantitative results allow the development of potential new strategies and strategic measures that contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy savings.


February 2020 – April 2021




Prognos AG

IREES GmbH – Institut für Ressourceneffizienz und Energiestrategien

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