Biomethane in Europe
With the REPowerEU plan, the European Commission aims to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian fossil fuels and strengthen the resilience of the EU-wide energy system. This is to be achieved by diversifying gas supplies through higher imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), but above all by producing larger quantities of biomethane. The previous, already very ambitious target of 17 billion m3 of biomethane by 2030 set out in Fit for 55 is to be practically doubled to 35 billion m3. There is no question that the sustainably available renewable raw material potential must be exploited to replace fossil fuels. The question is, however, whether biomass is available in a sustainable manner, especially in the short period of time remaining until 2030.
There are numerous studies on the potential for biomethane production in Europe. Actual production currently stands at 3 billion m3, which is less than a tenth of the newly set target. The studies analysed as part of this project do indeed show high potential. However, the assumptions behind them are extremely optimistic in most cases. They consistently reject technical – i.e. theoretical – potential and mostly aim for more distant horizons such as 2050. The decisive factor here is the proportion of biomethane from waste and residual materials (e.g. manure or biowaste). The assumptions made in a study by ICCT are considered to be relatively realistic, reaching close to 35 billion m3 even from waste and residual materials, but also targeting 2050 and what is technologically feasible.
Based on this, ifeu estimates in this project that by 2030 only about half of the target will come from waste and residual materials. This means that sticking to the 35 billion m3 target will require the massive use of renewable raw materials (especially maize). This would have significant negative consequences. Over 5 million hectares of arable land would be used for this purpose – more than the area under rapeseed cultivation in Ukraine. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emissions savings associated with maize biomethane would be relatively low compared to natural gas.
The present ifeu study therefore recommends that the sustainable potential of biomethane be exploited and utilised as quickly as possible. However, ifeu believes that a high target of 35 billion m3, which does not impose any sustainability conditions, is the wrong approach, as it would only be achievable through excessive use of arable land. The goal of resilience for the EU-wide energy system would thus clearly be at the expense of the resilience of the EU-wide food system.