Long-term Scenarios for the Transformation of the Energy System in Germany (Long-term Scenarios III)

In the project, scenarios for the future development of the energy system are modelled to achieve the energy and climate policy goals. The modelling encompasses the entire energy system, i.e. the generation of electricity, heat and hydrogen as well as the demand for energy in the industry, transport, buildings and appliances sectors. The energy infrastructures for electricity, gas and district heating are also modelled. The focus of the analysis is not on developing a single ‘lead scenario’, but rather on examining different scenario worlds in order to gain insights into the advantages and disadvantages of alternative paths for the transformation of the energy system through comparative analyses.

Three scenario rounds were calculated in the long-term scenarios III:

TN scenarios (greenhouse gas-neutral by 2050), published in 2020
ifeu modelled eight different scenarios for the building sector using the GEMOD building model. Furthermore, it derived the potential for energy-related biomass from agriculture and forestry and modelled the greenhouse gas emissions of these two sectors. The report on biomass potential and emissions from the agriculture and LULUCF sectors can be downloaded here.
The electrification scenarios are based on the extensive use of renewable electricity, with significant quantities of hydrogen also required in these scenarios to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality.

The hydrogen-based scenarios examine different forms of increased use of hydrogen for the decarbonisation of the energy system.

The scenario worlds based on synthetic hydrocarbons (power-to-gas/power-to-liquid (PtG/PtL)) examine different forms of the use of synthetic hydrocarbons (PtG/PtL) for the decarbonisation of the energy system.
T45 scenarios (greenhouse gas neutral by 2045), published in 2022
ifeu calculated five scenarios for the building sector.
The revision of the German government's climate targets made it necessary to recalculate the scenarios. This was linked to improvements in the modelling process. All scenarios achieve greenhouse gas neutrality in 2045 and meet the specified interim targets along the way. In addition to the three main scenarios, two sensitivity scenarios were calculated.
O45 scenarios (orientation scenarios), published in 2024
ifeu calculated two scenarios for the building sector and updated a scenario for the LULUCF sector and the biomass potentials. The O45-Strom scenario excludes the use of renewable gases in the building sector. This strengthens the already strong focus on heat pumps. In scenario O45-H2, the use of renewable gases (biomethane and hydrogen) in space heating is possible.

The reports and presentations from the three scenario rounds can be downloaded on the right.

On the project page https://langfristszenarien.de/enertile-explorer-en/ you will find a dashboard, reports, presentations and webinar recordings from the other sectors as well.