National Strategy for a Climate Neutral Building Stock in 2045

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The Federal Climate Protection Act stipulates that Germany must achieve climate neutrality by 2045. This goal poses major challenges for the building sector in particular. Therefore, the German government is developing a National Strategy for a Climate Neutral Building Stock in 2045. A background paper prepared in 2022 by a consortium of nine research institutes, including ifeu, provides scientific support and strategic advice. The paper shows that climate neutrality in the building sector by 2045 is achievable with technologies available today, but that the path to this goal is very narrow due to the limited remaining time and the long investment cycles for buildings and heat supply systems.

The study identified the following key action areas:

• building envelopes compliant with climate neutrality
• reasonable new construction,
• heat pump roll-out,
• municipal heat planning,
• connection of buildings to district heating,
• phase-out of remaining fossil fuel-based heating systems,
• limiting the use of biomass,
• GHG-neutral electricity generation in buildings,
• expansion of heat storage,
• reducing the energy consumption and increasing the efficiency of HVAC systems,
• space-saving and energy-saving behaviour,
• making the transformation socially acceptable.

For all these areas, there is an acute need for ambitious, anticipatory, and well-coordinated policy instruments. In view of the long investment cycles in the building sector, but also in energy infrastructures, clear regulations are necessary to create reliability for planning. The paper presents concrete recommendations and measures for this purpose. 

Building on the background paper published in March 2023, further analysis is performed on specific issues. These include the necessary renovation steps in the context of the minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) included in the amendment to the EU Buildings Directive (EPBD), the evaluation of potentials of unavoidable waste heat and seasonal storage for district heating, the evaluation of biomass potentials, and the importance of (flexible) energy consumption of buildings for the electricity system. Here, ifeu leads the evaluation of waste heat potentials and seasonal heat storage for the future heat supply of buildings.