Cost-Based Method to Estimate Electrification Potential of the German Road Freight Transport

Autor*innen: Maybritt Schillinger, Michel Allekotte, Julius Jöhrens

We present an approach to analyse the potential of battery electric trucks (BEV) in Germany by investigating which truck usage pattern can be run by BEV profitably. The approach is based on a country-wide traffic model that specifies truck traffic volumes on relations, i.e. pairs of locations in Germany between which trucks travel. For each relation, we compare the total cost of ownership per kilometre of BEV and conventional diesel vehicles operating on that relation. The key unknown parameters per relation are annual mileage per truck and time delay costs due to charging for BEV with different battery sizes. Hence, we develop a method for estimating the annual mileage from the distance of the relation and a model to compute the time delay for different battery sizes.