Aktualisierte Bewertung von Emissionsminderungspotenzialen zusätzlicher Verkehrsmaßnahmen

Aktualisierung der Emissionsprojektionen des nationalen Luftreinhalteprogrammes

Authors: Christoph Heidt, Michel Allekotte, Udo Lambrecht

The EU NEC Directive (2016/2284) obliges Member States to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur oxides (SOX), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), ammonia (NH3) and particulate matter (PM2.5) from 2020 and 2030. It stipulates national air pollution control programmes (NLRP), which must be updated at least every four years. Every two years, Member States must report updated air pollutant emission projections to the EU, most recently in March 2025. The present project served to update the projections in the transport sector and to review the package of road transport measures developed by the German government in the NLRP 2023 (introduction of a Euro 7 standard, extension of the truck toll, promotion of electromobility). All measures considered were classified as implemented and therefore included in the projections in the updated ‘with measures’ scenario (WM – with measures). In future, pollutant emissions from road traffic will fall despite increasing traffic volumes (e.g. by 39% for nitrogen oxides between 2025 and 2030) as the proportion of electric vehicles and new, lower-emission combustion engines increases. The measures examined contribute to this reduction, albeit to a slightly lesser extent than assumed in the NLRP 2023. The underlying modelling is based on the TREMOD and HBEFA models.